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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest upset.

But this year's competition is profoundly different. The list of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners declining and recent also-rans ascending in unison. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still